Make a prediction
How to buy and sell outcome shares on a Predictifi market, and how LMSR prices your trade.
A prediction is a position on the outcome of a real-world event. You buy shares of the outcome you think is more likely; if the market resolves your way, your shares redeem for value.
Buy shares
- Open a market and read its resolution criteria and close date.
- Pick an outcome and enter a USDC amount.
- The interface shows an instant LMSR quote — the shares you will receive and the price.
- Confirm. The exact cost is checked against the on-chain quote, then you approve and submit.
Prices are set by the on-chain Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule. As people buy an outcome, its price rises and the others fall; outcome prices always sum toward $1.00 and represent the crowd's implied probability.
Sell shares
Open the market's Trade panel and switch to Sell. The LMSR quotes your payout at the current price. You can sell at any time while the market is trading — you do not have to wait for resolution.
Fees
A total 2% fee applies to each trade, taken from the trade amount: 0.5% to the market creator and 1.5% to liquidity providers and the protocol recipient. There is no separate fee to open or hold a position.
Reading the price
A lower price means the crowd thinks an outcome is less likely. A price of $0.30 implies roughly a 30% chance, and a winning $0.30 share redeems toward $1.00.